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Central to projecting future gas demand is the extent to which the availability of gas would make possible the displacement of other fuels in various categories of demand. The price at which gas breaks even with the competing fuels determines the economics of increased gasification. On top of relative price considerations, also demographic and economic projections, gas consumption intensities, current consumption of fuels that gas could replace and energy intensities play a role when doing a demand-side assessment. The table below displays projected demand and the thereof resulting supply gap for the nine gas markets. Supply gap is defined as supply in 2015 and 2025 required relative to 2005, taking into account both demand growth and decline in gas production in markets where it is relevant.
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Projected demand and supply gap
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2005 17.3 Bcm
Romania
2010 19.9 Bcm
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2025 25.6 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 1.7 % pa
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2005 3.2 Bcm
Bulgaria
2010 3.9 Bcm
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2025 6.3 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 3.2 % pa
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2005 2.5 Bcm
Serbia
2010 2.7 Bcm
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2025 3.6 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 1.9 % pa
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2005 2.7 Bcm
Croatia
2010 3.6 Bcm
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2025 4.2 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 1.0 % pa
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2005 0.3 Bcm
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2010 0.6 Bcm
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2025 1.4 Bcm
2010 -2025 growth 6.1 % pa
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2005 0.1 Bcm
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
2010 0.7 Bcm
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2025 1.2 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 3.8 % pa
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2005 0.1
Albania
2010 0.6
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2025 1.0 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 10.2 % pa
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2005 -
UNMIK
2010 0.1 Bcm
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2025 0.9 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 15.5 % pa
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2005 -
Montenegro
2010 0.6 Bcm
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2025 0.7 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 1.0 % pa
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2005 26.2 Bcm
Total
2010 32.8 Bcm
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2025 45.0 Bcm
2010 - 2025 growth 2.6 % pa
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2015 9.5 Bcm
Romania
2025 18.3 Bcm
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2015 1.5 Bcm
Bulgaria
2025 3.1 Bcm
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2015 1.5 Bcm
Serbia
2025 1.2 Bcm
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2015 0.6 Bcm
Croatia
2025 2.0 Bcm
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2015 0.6 Bcm
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2025 1.1 Bcm
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2015 0.7 Bcm
former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
2025 1.1 Bcm
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2015 0.7 Bcm
Albania
2025 1.0 Bcm
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2015 0.3 Bcm
UNMIK
2025 0.9 Bcm
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2015 0.6 Bcm
Montenegro
2025 0.7 Bcm
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2015 15.0 Bcm
Total
2025 29.4 Bcm
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Report SEE Regional Gasification Study (version storage), Economic Consulting Associates (31 Jan 2009)
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